Climate | Science, Data, and Earth System Change

Climate science sits at the intersection of atmospheric physics, oceanography, glaciology, and ecology. Earth's climate is determined by the balance of incoming solar radiation and outgoing thermal radiation, modulated by greenhouse gas concentrations, cloud cover, aerosols, and surface albedo. Human activity has shifted this balance, driving global temperatures to levels not seen in at least 125,000 years.

Global Temperature and Carbon Dioxide

The Keeling Curve, measured at Mauna Loa Observatory since 1958, provides the longest continuous record of atmospheric CO₂. In 2026, CO₂ reached 433.95 parts per million, roughly 50 percent higher than pre-industrial levels. This increase is the primary driver of the observed +1.4°C global temperature anomaly above pre-industrial baselines.

Cryosphere and Sea Level

Ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are losing mass at accelerating rates, contributing to sea level rise of 3.4 millimeters per year. Arctic sea ice extent continues its long-term decline at roughly 13 percent per decade, opening new shipping routes while disrupting polar ecosystems and albedo feedback loops.

Climate Modeling and Prediction

Earth system models integrate atmospheric, oceanic, cryospheric, and terrestrial processes to project future climate under different emission scenarios. Model improvements in cloud physics, aerosol interactions, and ocean mixing are reducing uncertainty in regional climate projections, though significant challenges remain in predicting tipping point behavior.